ABSTRACT
AIM: To compare the suicide rates observed in Brazil after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic with the estimated number based on suicide deaths between 2010 and 2020, and to identify sociodemographic variables associated with this outcome. METHODS: An ecological time-series study. Data were obtained from DATASUS, with the structural break of the data set in March 2020. The number of observed suicides and the number of the expected, if there were no COVID-19 pandemic, were analyzed through Bayesian Models of structural time series. RESULTS: There was stability in Brazil's overall incidence of suicides after the beginning COVID-19 pandemic, compared to what would be expected. However, there was a significant increase in death in women (6.9%) and in the elderly (9.1%). The analysis according to the macro-region showed a significant increase in death in the Central West (7.4%), Northeast (5.7%), and Southeast (10%). Stratified analyzes revealed differences according to the group assessed considering particularities such as age, sex, schooling, and skin color. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the general stability in the number of suicides, this occurs heterogeneously among population groups in different regions of Brazil. There is an increase in populations with a history of poor access to health, which may have been more severely impacted by the pandemic.